(WHTM) – Democrats Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman are both now considered favored to win their respective races, according to election analysts FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model.
Both candidates were recently considered to be slightly favored prior to the recent projections.
Shapiro, the commonwealth’s attorney general and Democrat nominee for Governor, is projected to have an 86% chance of beating Republican Doug Mastriano, according to the forecast model.
The model showed Shapiro with a 75% chance to win starting on June 1, but recent polls have significantly increased his projected chance of victory. FiveThirtyEight projects Shapiro to win the November election with 52% of the popular vote over Mastriano.
The most recent poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, showed Shapiro with 50% support, a 15% lead over Mastriano.
Fetterman, the commonwealth’s Lieutenant Governor, was given a 73% chance to beat Republican Mehmet Oz in the Senate race. With Fetterman recovering from a stroke, the model showed Oz as the favorite back in June with a 65% chance to win the race.
In mid-June Oz’s chances in the model dropped to 53% and the race flipped a few days later to slightly favor Fetterman.
The model’s projected popular vote has Fetterman with 50.7% to Oz’s projected 46.1% and 3.2% going for a third party candidate.
The Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight model simulates each election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.